The House of Al-Saud and the Early Disappointment
Political movement is present with respect to Yemen, but it is not the kind that produces a solution soon or quickly. At the start of the criminal operations, no one was able to exercise any kind of direct or indirect pressure on the sides of the conflict, specifically the House of Saud, who woke up on a scene and believed- and still do- that it would hold them to the throne of the Arab and Islamic nation. On the other hand, the Yemeni party was not in the position of the initiator and its condition for the settlement was, and still is, to hold a Yemeni-Yemeni political dialogue away from aggressors in order to produce a formula governing political life in the country based on new facts- the basis of these facts being that Yemen came out, and for the last time, from the tutelage and the domination of Saudi Arabia.
Saudi King Salman
After more than two weeks on the air campaign, it is clear that the source of main objectives of the first three days is the United States. The House of Saud’s ambassador in Washington, Adel al-Jubeir, received from the US intelligence a definitive answer that the US military would not participate directly in the aggression, and would not come out empty-handed, too. The head of intelligence gave him a list of about 150 military and security targets, most of which are sites for the Yemeni army and some of which are for Ansarullah. Later, the assailants obtained a list of targets limited to the infrastructure belonging to the state and the people. However, the “non-smart” rockets did not target but crowds of civilians, killing and injuring thousands of them.
The House of Saud was confident that it had their supporters on the ground, and that the tribes and groups of fighters from the people of the south, center and north, would carry out an armed uprising to go with the aggression. Likewise, it bet on the control of “al-Qaeda” groups in the south-east on large areas, which reduces the army’s sphere of influence and Ansarullah. The aggressors also bet on the emotional responses of the leaders of the Yemeni resistance, such as resorting to bombing or missile attacks across the border, or moving at/towards Bab-el-Mandeb which means an excuse to carry out large onshore and offshore operations with the participation of Arab and Muslim forces.
Yet, none of all these bets happened. For it has become clear that any real popular uprising did not happen. And the Reform Party, the Yemeni branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, was not ready or able to take action beyond a few demonstrations and statements in support of aggression. Moreover, the fugitive president does not have from the popularity that would make him able to install a safe point for himself in the south of Yemen, center, or even east. In addition, the leaders of the Southern Movement are not in a position that qualifies them to do what is required. Furthermore, the most prominent thing reaped by the House of Saud was statements for the former southern president Ali Salim al-Beidh, which do not include the recognition of the unity of Yemen as well as visits to the dignitaries or leaders from the second row of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia that ended with very embarrassing statements.
It was later to become clear that these delegations were shocked by several things. For they received financial inducements, but they are of the very trivial kind that are susceptible to ignoring and puzzlement. What is most important is that they heard conflicting views; while the House of Saud asked them to raise the ceiling, they heard opposite words in the UAE and Qatar. Also, some of them sensed the contrast widening within the gassy family among Muhammad bin Nayef, who calls for “acting wisely”; tired bin Abdullah, whom is meant to only implement orders; and Mohammed bin Salman, the teenager who thinks that he is “the king of the desert”. The problem with the latter is multiplied for being the son of the king on the one hand; the defense minister on the other hand; and the chief of the royal court, that is to say, the holder to seal contracts on another hand.
On the ground, the air strikes were a strong nuisance factor, but they were not an impeding factor to the implementation of the overall control operation by the army and Ansarullah over the entire south and east- and that is what emerged during the past ten days, knowing that the plans set to take hold of the provinces of Marib and Hadhramaut under preparation and implementation. What is being talked about in the face of other regions, including Aden, does not represent a key element in the face of command and control, which are in the hands of the army and Ansarullah, whereby it has become that any force in front of them is not worth anything.
It is as if the calamity of the House of Saud does not stop at this point. For the days came to reveal to it illusions that it planted in its mind the day it imagined that the world is a conscript for its service. Now, it is reaping one disappointment after another- from Pakistan’s refusing stance to engage in the war, to Turkey’s decision of neutrality, to Morocco’s warning, to Egypt’s hesitation which denounces the more if things remain the same. Yet, more importantly, the Europeans do not sell only weapons and rhetoric, and the United States does not look likely to provide the full cover that it can for achieving results on the ground; and all of that happened amid the decreasing enthusiasm of the people of the Gulf themselves, from Qatar’s questionable loyalty to the plan, to Kuwait’s seeking to take some distance, to the UAE that is divided over itself.
However, the biggest shock is not in the lack of hundreds of thousands of Arab volunteers coming out to engage in a battle to restore the Arab prestige, as the House of Saud promoted, but in the promotion-of-aggression campaign and its adoption, which is now actually limited to the voices paid to directly by the House of Saud. There are questions about the ability of these voices on the crowds and the mobilization, while every day, steadfastness by the army and Ansarullah is transferred into a wall barrier before the aggression’s achievement of its objectives.
After the House of Saud was left alone, they were able to review the matter, and the certainty that there is no one in the world that wants them victors at all; neither Turkey, which is afraid of their influence on the fate of the «Brotherhood» in Yemen; nor Pakistan which wants balanced relationships, and not to remain at the disposal of those who created Taliban and their derivatives; nor the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which has become exhausted from the House of Saud’s forced administration for its entire affairs. So, how about the others- from America whose president Barack Obama disclosed his vision of the of the House of Saud’s circumstances and its allies; to Arab Morocco, which- as Egypt- is sufficient enough with those who pay generously in return for their need for support; reaching to the opponents of the House of Saud in Yemen itself, in the center of Bilad ash-Sham and ending with Iran.
The House of Saud was left alone, and the coming days will commit them to the option of two things: either taking the strong Egyptian opinion, or calling for the launch of an initiative to impose a political solution that saves face of the mad family; or advancing in the madness party towards the level of direct confrontation- everyone knows that it will be the defeat that hundreds of millions of Arabs and Muslims have awaited for a hundred years, at least.
You see, who decided to leave the donkey lonely?