Under President Trump, US economy to shrink $1 trillion: Oxford Economics
If GOP nominee Donald Trump wins the 2016 presidential election, the US economy will shrink $1 trillion smaller five years later than expected, says economics research firm Oxford Economics.
The firm, which specializes in “global forecasting and quantitative analysis,” made the announcement Tuesday, citing the real estate mogul’s policies, which could result in “adverse” consequences.
“Should Mr. Trump prove more successful in achieving adoption of his policies, the consequences could be far-reaching – knocking 5 percent off the level of US GDP relative to baseline and undermining the anticipated recovery in global growth,” it was quoted as saying by Reuters.
From 2017, the country’s economy is expected to grow at a constant rate of around 2 percent, reaching $18.5 trillion in 2021, the firm said based on its so-called baseline scenario.
According to the scenario, Trump’s rival, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will emerge victorious in the November 8 election and the country will continue its current policies with another Democrat in the White House following President Barack Obama.
Meanwhile, the Congress will remain split between the two major parties with Democrats gaining the Senate and the Republicans maintaining control over the House of Representatives.
With Trump in the White House, however, growth will fall near zero in 2019, and the overall GDP will be reduced to $17.5 trillion, due to his policies, including mass deportation of immigrants and asylum seekers as well as his approach to tax cuts and trade measures.
According to its website, Oxford Economics “offers the world’s most advanced economic forecasting portfolio.