After elaborating the importance and the role of Iraq in part one of this report, and the foreign role in igniting the crisis in favor of its enterprises in the entire region in part two; in this third and last part of the “After Syria, Sedition in Iraq”, we will shed the light on the current turmoil influence in the Western Iraqi governorates, as well as the ways to confront them on both the popular and official levels.
There is no doubt that the ongoing movements in West and central Iraq neither occurred by chance, nor as a reaction to arresting the body guards of Iraqi Finance Minister Rafe Al-Issawi, because his provocative tone in response to his body guards’ prosecution implied that some foreign and local sides are escalating unrest.
Demands or Accountability?
According to the Iraqi Political Analyst Abu Maytham Al-Jawaheri, “the region and the entire world are involved in a cold world war practiced through Syria, Iraq and other countries. The goal is to destabilize Iraq to be a side in this war or a player controlled by others.”
“A conspiracy, led by Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, in coordination with Israel and the United States, is plotted to create a new axis that counters the anti-US presence axis in the region, represented by Iran. However, the ongoing events in Iraq are to exert pressure attempting to drag the Arab country to the western-Gulf axis, although Iraq doesn’t consider itself a part of either of the axes,” Jawaheri told Al-Manar website.
Moreover, Jawaheri considered that “the participant countries in this conspiracy made interest of some Kurds who want to steal the Iraqi resources in their region, and a quarter of the resources found in the other Iraqi regions.
“They want to create a state regardless of the Iraqi presence. They want to exploit the Iraqi politicians, including the Baathists and AL-Qaeda, and make interest of the sectarian environment, and some of them want a divided Iraq.”
“The main task of some of them is to increase and provoke sectarianism,” he added.
For his part, the Iraqi Political Analyst, Abbas Al-Moussawi, assured this view to Al-Manar website. “Al-Anbar protests weren’t normal reactions, everybody knows that the issue is a legal one, and that the Iraqi judiciary system issued this memorandum,” he said.
“But Al-Issawi’s press conference ignited sectarianism and urged some extremists to utilize this card, in which they think that a Sunni or Salafist spring will spread in Iraq,” he added, considering that the protesters’ demands are unclear, dispersed, and contradicted.
“Some are sectarian, others are non-merchandise and legislative,” he stated.
“Only one demand would weaken those movements among which is solving Al-Issawi’s body guards’ case and issuing a governmental decision to stop chasing them, and set them free, which is an illegal step,” he said. “The government is not intending to settle this case because it is totally judicial.”
Dangers of the Crisis
The recent crisis, preceding the unrest between the central government and Iraqi Kurdistan, has left negative effects on Iraq, which had already gaps on several levels. The most distinguished is the security instability and random explosions. Al-Anbar protests worsened the situation after the organizers ignited sectarianism and called for division.
In this context, the Expert in Turkish Affairs, Mohammad Noureddine, stated to Al-Manar website that “a serious game is taking place in the region. In case western and Arab attempts wouldn’t topple the regime in Syria, a riot in Iraq will be sought, which might lead to the partition and exclude it from the equation.”
For his part, Amir Moussawi, the director of Center of Strategic Studies and International Relations in Tehran, asserted to our website that “the problem is they tried to impose blockade on Syria. They acted in North Lebanon after they lost hope to make a change in the Syrian situation, almost two years following the military, tangible and media support to the armed groups, as well as regional and international decisions, that all gave up before the Syrian will. Everything became hard for them to tackle.”
“Because their goal is to find a problem, and their demand is to keep the de-facto of unrest, they don’t want to reach a solution; especially that some issues require a constitutional amendment, which, in turn, requires a referendum,” said Al-Jawaheri.
Thus, we can sum up the most significant risks Iraq is facing regarding the ongoing events as follows:
1- Increasing gaps between the Iraqi population by Ethnic and sectarian incitement
2- Projects of partition sought by the West
3- Weakening the central government
4- Reviving the mobile bloody explosions (which have already been revived)
5- Eliminating the Iraqi political experience
6- Affecting the attempts to develop the economic and social situation (oil resources)
Disease and Cure
Although the horizon is unclear, questions about whether the Iraqis will be able to end this trouble are increasingly posed, and what cards has the government in order to fix the situation?
Al-Jawaheri told Al-Manar Website that “the Iraqi government is aware enough of this conspiracy. It was able to do so through its positive cooperation with the demands of protesters, as well as releasing hundreds of prisoners, and discussing Article 4 (Terrorism), accountancy and justice.”
“There are many committees working on how to stop oppression. The national protesters are open-minded and they are aware that the government is serious and honest in this proposal. They are also aware that their motive force is dishonest and doesn’t want to solve the problem. Rather, it is wanted to be kept ignited in order to achieve its goals and the demands of the regional countries it is working for,” he added.
For his part, Amir Moussawi said that “the difference between the government and the opposition is somehow being represented in the political confrontation, from which both parties cannot retreat easily because of two reasons:
– Illegal demands of some opposition groups
– Foreign and regional interventions
The Iranian expert mentioned that “some demands are reasonable and logical, which the government can deal with and must understand. Other demands are inapplicable because they are out of the government’s authorizations.”
“The parliament must decide about the laws which some opposition groups and politicians are demanding to abolish.”
“The article that opposes terrorism couldn’t be cancelled by a political decision. If some obstacles in its implication exist, it may be amended. As for its annulment, it means granting terrorists the opportunity to freely kill, kidnap and assassinate without accountability. In this case, the public right of the Iraqi people will be insulted. The nation and the blood of martyrs will be betrayed. All those demands don’t represent but a sort of bidding, which cannot be easily solved,” the Moussawi added.
Moussawi believed however, that the local solution lies in “forming a high national committee that communicates, sets up a base for national dialogue and deals with the Iraqi problem in general, because what exists in Al-Anbar also exists in other regions. The committee also should find a main solution for the services as well, and make decisive decisions to solve the economic problems.”
“Everything is treatable except sectarianism. Sedition must be ignored. The silent Iraqi majority won’t remain silent in front of those aiming at destroying the country. Rather, they will move to firmly to confrontation when the issue reaches the red line,” Moussawi added.
Because popular movements in Iraq cannot be listed under the so-called Arab Spring, regarding the sectarian sensitivity all over the Iraqi lands; perhaps the most stable element Al-Maliki’s government can hold to, in order to stop those movements, is to make it clear that the demands are not only related to the livelihood, but they also have foreign extensions.
Hence, according to the Strategic Expert Habib Fayyad, the more they pressure Al-Maliki’s government, the more directions he will have to move toward:
1st: More support for the Syrian regime to boost its endurance and strengthen relations with Iran and Jordan
2nd: More pressure against the Turkish government on the Kurdish level (Iraq has canceled many agreements with Ankara and forbade its planes to pass through its airspace)
It doesn’t seem that regional and western intervention will make changes in Iraq, or cause it to hold back its position from both the relation with Iran and the Syrian crisis. This is because the post-US Iraq has settled its options on the basis of well-neighboring all sides. Since dialogue is the most powerful way to settle problems, hopes are set over quick solution, never surrendering to the foreign schemes that aim at dragging Iraqis into sectarian fight, in which they will be the first victims, just like what is happening with their Syrian neighbors.