Control of al-Qusayr is game changer in Syria

The recent operation, in which the Syrian army recaptured much of the city of al-Qusayr, was one of the country’s biggest victories in its war against the rebels, which has lasted over two years.
Al-Qusayr is on the Damascus-Homs highway, and thus by gaining control of the area, the Syrian government has cut the supply route of the rebels operating in the Homs region, which could force them to retreat from their strongholds. The importance of the city is magnified since it is located on the weapons smuggling route and is just 15 kilometers from the border with Lebanon, so its recapture will allow the Syrian government to control the border area.

If the government of President Bashar al-Assad can gain full control over al-Qusayr, it would be a massive setback for the United States, Israel, and the reactionary Arab states, which have spent billions of dollars to support the rebels fighting against the Syrian government. The gains made by the Syrian military over the past few months have changed all the equations in Syria and have improved the government’s position for the proposed talks with the opposition to resolve the crisis.

Now that their main supply route is blocked, the rebels are trying to intensify the battle in the city of Daraa on the Syria-Jordan border in order to weaken the army’s position in al-Qusayr. However, the army seems to be in control of the situation in Daraa since the vast majority of the people of the region support the government.

Thus, Assad’s government is expected to have the upper hand at the second Geneva conference on Syria. However, the general atmosphere that prevails at the meeting will determine how many concessions Assad can acquire from the opposition. And at the end of the day, the talks between the United States and Russia, and the positions adopted by other influential countries, such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, will determine the outcome of the Geneva conference.

Seyyed Morteza Nematzadeh is an expert on the Middle East who formerly served as Iran’s cultural attaché in Syria.