Lebanon

’Israel’ Tells of Its Strategic Failure: Not Ready for another War with Hizbullah

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“Israel” afraid as it suffers the repercussions of its strategic defeat under the title: Hizbullah has the Upper Hand.

On this level, “Israeli” Ynet daily shed light on some aspects of this defat: “Prime Minister Netanyahu, “Defense” Minister Ya’alon, the chief of staff and his deputy are actually the ones who decide what happens next.”

“They face a difficult dilemma: If they deal a major blow to Hizbullah in Lebanon, the result would probably be a total conflagration, probably the Third Lebanon War. It would be a war in which Lebanon and Hizbullah absorbed terrible destruction and losses but the “Israeli” home front would also be severely harmed – if not more so.”

The daily further claimed: “If “Israel” shows restraint it may lose the deterrent effect it achieved in the Second Lebanon War. On the other hand, Hizbullah could rightly boast that it is the one deterring “Israel” and not vice versa.”

According to Ynet, “as a result, Hizbullah may in the future continue operations against the “IDF”, in a measured manner akin to the events on Wednesday, on the assumption that the “IDF” will continue to show restraint. Under such conditions it would be very difficult for “Israel” and the “IDF” to prevent the transfer of weapons from Syria to Hizbullah convoys in Lebanon and prevent the establishment of a second front against “Israel” on the Syrian Golan Heights.”
In parallel, the daily cautioned that “for “Israel” it is – and rightly so – hard to come to terms with the death and injury of its soldiers, but grief in itself does not justify a move that would cause tens and hundreds of deaths and injuries on the “Israeli” side if and when a third Lebanon war breaks out.”

Moving to the internal “Israeli” front, Ynet said: “The final consideration concerns the upcoming elections. If the present government decides on a harsh response that would trigger a major escalation, it would almost immediately be accused of dragging “Israel” into a political war designed to serve the ends of Netanyahu, Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett.”

On the international front, the daily said: “”Israel” can assume that the Iranians are still preparing some kind of revenge.”
“No one can ignore the fact that Netanyahu has reduced relations between “Israel” and the Obama administration to an unprecedented low. And in such a situation, it is not certain that “Israel” is guaranteed American support in the international arena if it acts with full force in Lebanon. Hence “Israel” would have a problem with international legitimacy if it came to a strong reaction against Hizbullah in Lebanon over the events of Wednesday. “Containment” is apparently the more palatable option to Israel’s defense and political leadership.”

For its part, “Jerusalem Post” chose to concentrate on the ground effects.
“Tensions in the north remained high on Thursday morning, the day after two soldiers were killed by an anti-tank missile fired by Hizbullah in Lebanon.”
“The “Israeli” army Spokesperson’s Office said that there was an increased number of troops along the border on Thursday, without saying an exact number.”

It also stated: “The “IDF” began drilling again on Thursday in search for possible tunnels near the northern community of Zir’it, which is situated close to the Lebanese border. They started the drilling on Wednesday morning but subsequently stopped due to the attack.”
Military sources also told the daily that “on Wednesday said the drilling was being carried out in response to a request by local residents to rule out the possibility of the presence of Hezbollah attacks in the area.”

Moving to Haaretz, Amos Harel came to the conclusion that the Zionist entity isn’t interested in a new war.
“It’s a distinction that is hard for “Israelis” to hear, certainly when the two soldiers who were killed Wednesday at Har Dov have not yet been buried.”
“Hizbullah responded to the attack on its convoy with a focused assault on “Israeli” military vehicles, directing its fire to the slopes of Har Dov, on the road leading to the village of Ghajar.”

It also stated: “It seems that “Israel” does not want an escalation.”

“Even if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to show how firm he is on security ahead of the election, all-out war with Hizbullah is another thing entirely. It is hard to see why Netanyahu would think a broad military conflict would necessarily end in a persuasive victory that would bolster his position.”

On this level, Haaretz explained: “Thus it seems that the prime minister has a clear interest in ending this round of violence soon. As always, rhetoric must be distinguished from actions.”

“The question mark over the coming weeks has to do with how Hizbullah leader [Sayyed] Hassan Nasrallah regards the death of Mughniyeh.”

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