The US-led arms race in Asia-Pacific will hurt Japan economy

An analyst says the US-encouraged arms race out of the dispute over islands between China and Japan is to escalate tensions, but risks the Japanese economy.

In the background of this a dispute over the control of a group of islands between China Japan and Taiwan tests the resolve of these nations to come to a peaceful agreement. Historically the ownership has been with China, which lies geographically in closest proximity yet the islands were usurped by America during World War II and later signed over to Japan. America supports both Japan and Taiwan and is encouraging an arms race to develop to further alienate the three countries from each other.

Press TV has interviewed Mr. Chris Bambery, political analyst from London about this issue. The following is an approximate transcription of the interview.

Press TV: Let’s pick up on the financial part of this, which is said, well, may be China may use the financial aspect of this as a weapon in reference to the debts that China has bought, in some sense, one trillion dollars plus worth. The US has said that’s a side issue.

As a matter of fact one of the analysts from the Heritage Foundation has said that while the total size of US debt and trend of the debt is a national security risk, China’s holdings are a side issue.

What do you think? Do you think China may use that as a financial weapon?

Bambery: Well, I think the first people to be worried are the Japanese, as my colleague said, they are extremely reliant on China. Today, Toyota is talking about expanding its exports into sales in China. And it is really keeping the Japanese motor industry going – the new Chinese markets.

But America as you say and our colleague said has this huge debt, which the Chinese hold and really it depends very much on China maintaining that and not calling in on those debts.

And at some stage China must be thinking about using its economic muscle, its growing economic muscle, in terms of this arms race.

And there is a real arms race, which the Americans are allowing to develop in the region with the Japanese once again hiking up their defense spending; we’re seeing both sides China and Japan embracing drone technology…
So the arms race is underway and of course the Chinese are self-sufficient, but the Japanese will have to buy those arms off the Americans, which might do the American economy some good.

But the key thing as my colleague says is the Chinese do hold a huge pile of American debt, which at some stage they could think of using that as leverage against the US economy.

And the Americans I believe are encouraging a very dangerous game here because it is not just Japan and China as well, it is also Taiwan, which America has committed to defending, which it’s selling arms to, which is also involved in this.

So it’s a dangerous situation and I think that we should be hoping that the Americans pull back from encouraging the Japanese further down this road.

Press TV: Let’s look at what the former under secretary general of the UN has said about this – we used that in the report.

He said, “The US is using Japan as a strategic tool suffered to mount a comeback in Asia.” Also he has said that some in China and Japan see the issue violence as a time bomb planted by the US between China and Japan, that time bomb is now exploding or about to explode.

Bambery: I think that’s right and I think there is a time bomb. And I think you have to have a sense of history here. In 1931 the invasion of Manchuria opened up a war of occupation and conquest by Japan and China, which lasted until 1945 – we saw millions of Chinese die. They were atrocities on a scale, which really have not been talked about much in history, but there is a glowing memory of this in China.

And I think secondly we have to understand, the 1949 revolution, communist party took power because it was successful as the only force that could essentially unite China; brought it back together again having been gobbled up by various parts of the West and I mean gobbled up by Japan. It was able to create a nation state, a powerful nation state once again.

So you have a combination of deep grievance in China over the war crimes committed by the Japanese, which there has never been an apology for; and the communist party’s government is based very much on a nationalist revolution, which brought the country back together again – and that is the ideology of it.

And therefore when the Americans encourage this stuff – and we should remember these islands were American protectorates until the early 1970s as part of a peace agreement, a so-called peace agreement at the end of World War II the Chinese were not part of. Then they handed it back to the Japanese effectively.

That brings up memories as well and it reminds people of the role of America in supporting the Chiang Kai-Shek regime, which the communists overthrew – America were the main backers of the Chiang Kai-Shek.

So there are all sorts of grievance there – the Korean war, which someone mentioned where the Americans were on the verge of using nuclear weapons against China before they were defeated. And those grievances come up.

And I think we should remember there are two elements in American policy when regarding China: there has been the element since 1972 when President Nixon went to Beijing and recognized the Peoples Republic…; but there has also been this other element of trying to use Taiwan and now Japan, and South Korea to an extent against China and we are seeing two parts of the game here.

The Americans are playing a very dangerous game. The territorial dispute can spin out of control; a clash in the high seas around these islands; the use of drones, we know the use of drones, all of us have seen this elsewhere in the world – all of this can spin out of control.

The Obama administration should be put under pressure inside American and from around the world to pull back from encouraging any Japanese aggression.

In this matter I’m wholeheartedly with the Chinese, I think there should be a sense of history of the injustices inflicted on China in the last century, which means people who want peace around the world should be supporting the Chinese in what they’re saying is the basic dispute over this, particularly as the Americans encourage this arms race between the powers.

Press TV: People in China in terms of commentators from China’s People Daily as an example “US moves in the Middle East have served the US goals of seeking world wide domination”. What could stop this?

Bambery: What could stop this is the ordinary people of the United States; I should also say the ordinary people in Japan and indeed Britain because they must know that any military conflict and indeed any arms race is only going to deepen this economic recession.

The price of that is going to be what we see here in Britain and what we see in Japan, which is in its second decade of economic depression, which you remember is more austerity.

Therefore, although they’re trying to bang the nationalist drums in Japan; although they’re trying to bang the drums of war, we need to say to ordinary working people ordinary middle class people in all of these countries, you are going to pay a terrible price for this; you’re already paying a price in terms of austerity, but the economy is going to be driven down further and further because of this – you will pick up the tab and therefore it is in your interests to stop this.

And I think rather than talk about regime change elsewhere in the world, in Syria or elsewhere, we should be saying to ordinary people in the West and in Japan regime change should perhaps begin at home.