U.S, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan military’s preferences

As many observers have pointed out, very few things happen in Pakistan without them having been hatched or planned in Washington or Saudi Arabia.
Both powers have throughout the years made their presence and influences very much felt across the political spectrum, leaving rather sticky finger prints all over.

With Pakistan’s Muslim League-Nawaz having been according to sources approved by Washington through Saudi Arabia, the country is now expected a new government to be formed.

Pakistanis will vote in parliamentary elections on May 11 and a civilian government will hand power to another through the ballot box, according to the constitution.

Pakistan’s Muslim League-Nawaz’s leader, Nawaz Sharif, who has been referred to as Saudi Arabia political champion, will soon be getting a ‘gift’ of 20 bullet-proof vehicles from the KSA to run its campaign.

With threats of attacks and widespread insecurity, the Saudis are determined to ensure the security of their candidate.

Five vehicles will be used by the Sharif family and 15 others will be made available to the party leadership as it is finalizing its nationwide election campaign.

It is important to note that the Sharif family did not deny such allegations.

Sources initially claimed that Pakistan Interior Ministry received the 20 vehicles as ‘contribution/donation’ by a foreign government to a political party; in this case the PML-N; which under the election laws is prohibited.

However as the party insisted to treat the matter as a ‘gift’ from the Saudi authorities, the ministry decided to refer the matter to the Election Commission of Pakistan.

The Pakistan Election Laws and The Political Parties Order, 2002 state: “The contribution made by members or supporters of any party shall be duly recorded by the political parties. Any contribution made, directly or indirectly, by any foreign government, multi-national or domestically incorporated public or private company, firm, trade or professional association shall be prohibited and the parties may accept contributions and donations only from individuals.

Since the bullet-proof vehicles are coming from the Saudi government, Nawaz’s group should therefore be barred from accepting such a generous donation in kind; especially since the group received no terror threats, unlike other factions in Pakistan.

With Pakistan edging so close to the elections, security has become a major issue for the leadership of three political parties — Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Awami National Party (ANP) and Mutahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)) — They were all recently identified by a spokesman of the Pakistani Taliban as “legitimate” targets for militant attacks during the elections.

Former Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf who is still backed by Saudi Arabia and the U.S, is also very much part of the political scene.

According to sources, a Saudi diplomat in Abu Dhabi would have met with Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Chief Nawaz Sharif and asked him to avoid using harsh language against the former dictator.

Meanwhile, Pervez Musharraf along with his close aides visited Saudi Arabia last month and met with several members of the royal family before heading back to Pakistan.

It is important to mention that Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani also visited Saudi Arabia prior to Musharraf’s visit. Pakistan’s Intelligence ‘‘ISI’’ chief Lt-General Zaheerul Islam was also present during the visit.

Former president Pervez Musharraf chose a familiar path to return to Pakistan after early four-year exile, relying on the intervention of Saudi royals to ease him in.

It was previously revealed that following closed-door meetings with Saudi royals, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz had agreed to refrain from making things difficult former Pakistan’s former strongman.

The media reported that both PML-N Head Nawaz Sharif and the Army Chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani paid visits to the Kingdom before Musharraf’s arrival to Pakistan to discuss issues pertaining to the latter’s return and the country’s upcoming elections.

Musharraf himself met with Saudi royals reports mentioned.

PML-N’s top leadership has remained tight-lipped on the alleged Musharraf’s return deal.

The PML-N now appears to have softened its stance toward Musharraf, proof many said the Saudis got to the party’s leadership.

Moreover, Ahmad Raza Kasuri, Senior Vice President of Musharraf’s All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) confirmed a deal with the PML-N.

Under the deal – struck after Saudi Arabia intervened in 2008 – the government of Pakistan agreed to ensure Musharraf’s security when he will choose to return.

The PML-N joined the government under the same deal, and was, in return, expected to give the former president immunity.

A leading Pakistani newspaper reported last week that the U.S. and the UK are meddling in Pakistan’s upcoming elections.

In its report the Karachi based Daily ‘Ummat’ wrote the American Ambassador in Islamabad, officials in the U.S. and UK consulates in Lahore have close contacts with a flurry of political parties as to remain in control of all political developments in the country.

Quoting reliable sources, the report said, “American and British diplomats have gathered intelligence on candidates for the last three weeks.”

The newspaper warned the U.S. And the UK planned to delay the elections should their candidates failed to be in the race.

The paper further reported that the American Ambassador to Pakistan met with leaders of the Peoples Party, the Muslim League Nawaz and the Tehrike Insaf during his visit to Lahore last week.

Moreover, the paper claimed that the U.S would be growing wary of the Nawaz group, feeling Washington could lose its control over its leadership should it win the elections.

Moreover, Pakistan’s People Party (PPP) is facing internal differences as the party’s leadership recently shifted in favor of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is regarded as the future leader of the PPP. After differences with his father Asif Ali Zardari, he left for Dubai.

Zardari immediately traveled to Dubai to get his son back.

The PPP is also facing Washington’s ire over Iran gas deal. President Zardari signed last month an agreement with Iran despite American officials warning against such a decision.

The U.S warned that the pipeline deal, if finalized, would raise serious concerns.

“Since it is a big achievement of the PPP government despite U.S pressure, President Zardari wants to use the matter as leverage in the party’s election campaign,” one PPP insider told the media.

The PPP, alongside two other moderate factions is facing more threats from the Taliban.

Analysts have speculated that the combined threats posed by the Taliban and the weight of incumbency will lead to a lesser turnout at the poll, somewhat preventing Pakistan from holding “free and fair” elections.

However, Pakistan’s Chief election Commissioner, 85 years-old Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim, thinks otherwise. At the last election, voters’ turnout hovered around 40%. This time around Ebrahim expects several factors such as Pakistan vibrant media culture, a generation of young idealistic voters, and an empowered civil society will play heavily in the balance and lead to a higher turnout; somewhere around 60% the commissioner believes.

“When I see the enthusiasm of the people, I am inclined to think it is possible,” he said. “No one can promise that the democratic exercise will be completely free and fair,” he noted. “But I am confident the 2013 elections will be different.”

This time, 86.1 million Pakistanis, more than a third of them between the ages of 18 and 30 have registered to vote at polling stations all across the country.

The Election Commission has allowed some 148 political parties to run, allotting symbols to each party to help voters who cannot read.

Nuclear Scientist A.Q. Khan’s party, for example, has been given a missile; Imran Khan’s, a cricket bat.

With more than 20,000 candidates nationwide, the polls will present Pakistanis with a range of options to choose from. The left, which wants social freedom and liberties, peace with India, a laissez-faire approach to Afghanistan, strong relations with the U.S., and limitation on the Army’s power is led by the Pakistan People’s Party and its allies.

The right, anti-India, anti-America, which is preaching the importance of religion in political life, is represented by Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf; Saudi-backed former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League, as well as smaller religious and extremist parties.

The fringe is occupied by the groups like Musharraf and A.Q. Khan.

According to latest polls, if the elections were held today, they would yield a hung Parliament, and thus require expert coalition building. That in turn would mean that candidates spearheading smaller parties—candidates such as Imran Khan will become kingmakers, hence handed disproportionate power to decide Pakistan’s future.

The Pakistani experience shows that the military does not ditch its men even after their retirement. General Musharraf’s return shows the military’s new political strategy. Finding direct coups globally and nationally very unpopular and unacceptable, the military has now begun to introduce its proxies; General Musharraf for example, or passionately anti-U.S. Imran Khan, nuclear scientist Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan.

The rise of such a large number of political forces loyal to and directly or indirectly backed by the army is unprecedented. Their presence according to political circles is intended to undermine and counter the power of the country’s two largest political parties, the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League lead by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Without a significant victory of one faction at the elections, these forces will be able to blackmail, destabilize and embarrass the future governments.

As it has been mentioned earlier, a hung parliament will come into being and any party trying to get even a simple majority will have to seek support from other parties. The smaller parties will blackmail any party aspiring to form a government.