Washington Institute: Up to 11,000 Foreign Fighters in Syria, Steep Rise Among Europeans

The International Centre for the Study of Radicalization offered its latest assessment of how many foreigners are fighting in Syria, which countries they hail from, and other key data.

Since ICSR published its first estimate in April, the issue of foreign fighters in Syria has become a major concern for Western governments. More reports have emerged since, though few have accurately gauged the full extent and evolution of the phenomenon.

This ICSR Insight provided an update of our April estimate, offering the most comprehensive and richly resourced account of the Syrian foreign fighter phenomenon from open sources.

Based on more than 1,500 sources, the center estimated that up to 11,000 individuals from 74 nations have become opposition fighters in Syria – nearly double our previous estimate.
Among Western Europeans, the number has more than tripled from up to 600 in April to 1,900 now.
The studies estimated that — from late 2011 to 10 December 2013 — between 3,300 and 11,000 individuals have gone to Syria to fight there. These figures include those who are currently present as well as those who have since returned home, been arrested or killed.

Based on the credibility of various sources, the center believed the “true” figure to be above 8,500. This would mean that the numbers have nearly doubled since April, with a particularly steep increase among non-Arabs, especially Westerners.
While Arabs and Europeans continue to represent the bulk of foreign fighters (up to 80 per cent), the numbers have identified individuals from Southeast Asia, North America, Australia, and non-Arab Africa. Overall, we believe that residents and citizens from at least 74 countries have joined militant opposition groups in Syria.

The number of fighters from Western Europe ranged from 396 to 1,937.
Compared to April, this represented a threefold increase.

The French and Danish governments have doubled their estimates since the spring, while the figures provided by the Belgian, British and German governments have quadrupled.
Western Europeans now represent up to 18 per cent of the foreign fighter population in Syria, with most recruits coming from France (63-412), Britain (43-366), Germany, (34-240), Belgium (76-296), and the Netherlands (29-152).
Adjusting for population size, the most heavily affected countries are Belgium (up to 27 foreign fighters per million), Denmark (15), the Netherlands (9), Sweden (9), Norway (8), and Austria (7).

Individuals from Middle Eastern countries continue to represent the majority of foreign fighters (around 70 per cent). Up to 6,774 non-Syrian Arabs and an additional 523 non-Arabs from the (wider) region have gone to Syria.
The five countries with the largest numbers of foreign fighters in Syria are all part of the Middle East: Jordan is the single biggest contributor (up to 2,089), followed by Saudi Arabia (1,016), Tunisia (970), Lebanon (890), and Libya (556).

The most important regions for foreign fighter recruitment outside Western Europe and the Middle East are the Balkans and the countries of the former Soviet Union. In the Balkans, the largest contributors of foreign fighters are Kosovo (4-150), Albania (9-140), and Bosnia (18-60), with smaller numbers coming from Macedonia (3-20), Serbia (3), and Bulgaria (1). Among the former Soviet countries, the most significant are Russia (9-423 excluding Chechnya; 36-186 for Chechnya), Kazakhstan (14-150), Ukraine (50), and Kyrgyzstan (9-30), with all others providing a dozen or less.
The most prominent non-European Western countries are Australia (23-205), Canada (9-100), and the United States (17-60). Other notable countries of origin are Pakistan (7-330), China (6-100), Somalia (5-68), and Afghanistan (12-23).