Iran, big absentee at Syria conference: Analyst

After nearly three years of chaos and war in Syria, which have left tens of thousands dead and more than two million displaced, an international conference has kicked off in Switzerland with key player, Iran, being absent.

The failure and inconclusiveness of the Geneva-II meeting due to Iran’s absence is a foregone conclusion. To that effect, we explain the eight important factors affecting the future of Syria:

1. The Syrian government which has maintained its sovereignty on the country’s territorial integrity despite involvement in armed struggle with numerous terrorist groups over the past three years.

2. Some opponents of President Bashar al-Assad, who favor bloodless and warless transition to post-Assad era. These groups oppose the continuation of Assad clan’s rule, but they do not necessarily call for the overthrow of the Syrian government. Syria’s National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change is one of them.

3. Groups and individuals who want the overthrow of Assad at any price, even with war and terror. These groups are like those who will not shy away from destroying a house to evict its occupants. They lack any popular base in the country. The Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Syrian National Council (SNC) are classified in this category.

4. Terrorist Takfiri groups like al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), who are waging a war on the Syrian government and nation thanks to military and financial support by Saudi Arabia. These groups seek the revival of Talibanism in the Levant and then in Iraq.

5. Saudi Arabia and some of its Persian Gulf allies, who are spending their windfall petrodollars in the hope of installing a desired government in Damascus even at the price of deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians. Saudi Arabia is investing millions of dollars in terrorist activities in Syria in a bid to compensate for its failure in post-Saddam Iraq where most people have repudiated Saudi-backed Wahhabism and Salafism.

6. Supporters of stability in Syria, like Iran and Russia: These two countries deeply believe that the solution to the Syrian crisis is not summarized in war, terror and pressure and that a peaceful and political solution must be sought in view of political transition in this country. The significance of Iran-Russia position is that Tehran and Moscow both wield too much clout with the political and economic and even security and military structure in Syria and they are able to implement their plans for Damascus. For Iran, Syria is like a barrier to Israeli security and military threats. In other words, Damascus is the strategic fortress for anti-Israeli resistance. Syria and Lebanon’s Hezbollah form a security belt for Tehran against Tel Aviv threats.

7. Western governments led by the US: They look into the ongoing developments in Syria from two aspects. The first aspect is the idea of New Middle East, promoted by former US President George W. Bush. The US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq respectively in 2001 and 2003 were two steps taken for the realization of New Middle East idea which requires regime changes in the region and formation of governments oriented to economic capitalism and political and cultural liberalism. The so-called idea of globalization is a cover-up on modern colonialism. The second aspect will be to harm the Axis of Islamic Resistance in the Middle East. Damascus has traditionally been instrumental in preserving this axis. The Western governments imagine that Iran-Hezbollah link will tear apart if the Syrian government is toppled. Therefore, unseating President Assad is in fact the necessary preparation for the elimination of Hezbollah and defeating the Axix of Islamic Resistance against threats and savageries by the racist Zionist regime.

8. International bodies like the UN: International bodies are not influential enough to tackle the crisis in Syria and their weak position came to the limelight after UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon withdrew his invitation to Iran to attend the Geneva-II conference. However, their role in providing humanitarian aid to war-stricken people in Syria should not be ignored.

Any roadmap for resolving the crisis in Syria is required to have clear position vis-à-vis these eight players. For instance, negotiation with terrorist Takfiri and Wahhabi groups is totally useless. The only way to get rid of these terrorists would be to convince Saudi Arabia to cut its military and financial aid to these groups in order to accelerate their annihilation in Syria. Similarly, the Syrian opposition could not play any effective role in the future of Syria without shifting its strategy from military conflict to political opposition. To that effect, Turkish officials have acknowledged that they excessively supported the Syrian opposition during the first and second years of crisis in Syria.

Therefore, keeping Iran away from the Geneva-II meeting is a big political mistake which will block any reasonable solution to the Syrian crisis. The US has committed a strategic mistake by ignoring Iran’s influence in Syria and instead empowering Saudi Arabia. Riyadh could do no more than feeding money into terrorists and triggering more firefight in Syria.

If the terrorist Salafi and Wahhabi groups reach power in Damascus they will doubtlessly have no constructive idea for the country and they will choose the policy of terror which may even target European capitals and the United States. In that case, Western intelligence services are unlikely to be able to thwart their terrorist plots. A similar dangerous game was played in Afghanistan in the 1980s when the Western governments supported Afghan militants against then Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). But al-Qaeda and Taliban were born out of these Afghan militants and they finally struck New York on September 11, 2001. This deadly blow hit the US under George W. Bush, and nobody blamed Ronald Reagan, who was the US president in the 1980s. US President Barack Obama must be asked if he will remain accountable for any future attack on the US interests due to the White House support for Saudi-backed terrorists.

Despite unilateral propaganda campaign against the Islamic Republic, policymakers and decision-makers in Tehran do not hold a rigid-minded view of Syria. Iran favors a government born out of the will of the Syrian people. Tehran believes that only the Syrian people are competent to decide to keep Assad or choose a successor.

Any Syrian government will have to bow to political and economic reforms and it will not survive by adopting autocratic policies. But the point is that this political transition does not run through gun barrels and artillery fire – financed by Wahhabi-minded reactionary Saudis and backed by the US. The solution will be through ceasefire, dialogue, general election and all-out efforts to assuage sufferings and pains of this nation.

Undoubtedly, the future generations will not forgive the current world decision-makers for their passiveness vis-à-vis the ongoing oppression and injustice against the Syrian nation.