Sanctions have barely affected Iran’s exports of oil products, primarily fuel oil used for power generation and shipping, as well as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), used as cooking gas and petrochemical feed, Reuters reported.
Consultancy FGE estimates Iran’s product exports at 400,000-500,000 barrels per day, exceeding the top end of crude export estimates by other analysts of some 400,000 bpd for July.
Refinitiv Eikon data shows Iran exported more than 230,000 bpd of fuel oil in August, all to the United Arab Emirates, slightly above July’s figure of 220,000 bpd. At current prices, and assuming Iran is not selling at a big discount, such sales generate over $300 million a month.
Data intelligence firm Kpler says Iran exported 514,000 tons of LPG in July, or nearly 200,000 bpd, worth over $180 million at market prices. This compares with 579,000 tons in June. China accounted for more than 95% of Iranian LPG exports in June, according to Kpler.
Samantha Hartke, head of natural gas liquids and LPG at consultancy Energy Aspects, said her firm did not expect Chinese imports of Iranian LPG to abate given China’s new petrochemical capacity is creating significant demand for the feedstock.
“The irony is: if not for the US-China trade war, the US would have greatly benefited from this uptick in Chinese demand as a means of mopping up its overabundance of LPG supplies, thanks to shale,” she added.
Unlike crude oil, where the ultimate buyer is a refinery, fuel oil and LPG can find their way to potentially thousands of small-scale industrial or residential buyers, Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East with FGE, said.
“The market for these two products is so vast that finding and targeting those individuals is not easy,” he said.
Iran has a refining capacity of around 2.23 million bpd.
Despite the challenges, Iran declared self-sufficiency in gasoline after the inauguration of the third phase of its 350,000-bpd Persian Gulf Star refinery in February. Shipping data shows Iran has imported barely any oil product recently.