Repercussions of Assad’s strategic victory in al-Qusayr

The Syrian military’s success in the al-Qusayr offensive should be regarded as a major victory for President Bashar al-Assad that obviously changed all the equations in the country.
The region had been a key supply route for the rebels fighting government forces in Homs, and the importance of al-Qusayr is redoubled by its location next to Lebanon and the potential role it could play if the conflict spilled over into that country.

The city was also a hub of intelligence activities against Syria and its allies in the region. Since 1983, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have given millions of dollars to the nomads living in the area and have used them as informants and agents. Over the past few years, these elements have been actively serving the intelligence agencies of those two countries and Israel. The recapture of al-Qusayr effectively neutralized these spy cells, and thus the Syrian government and Hezbollah regained their intelligence superiority in the region.

The Syrian government’s victory in al-Qusayr deprived Israel of the ability to acquire the intelligence necessary for bombing sensitive civilian and military sites in Syria. It has also significantly weakened Israeli intelligence agencies’ access to Hezbollah’s key locations in the Baalbek Valley. Al-Qusayr was the main supply route for rebels in nearby cities like Raqqah, and the Syrian military’s recapture of the city takes away one of their main tools in their battle against Assad.

The fall of al-Qusayr was also the fall of the enemy’s dreams that the conflict would spill over into neighboring Lebanon. The area could have become a key supply route for smuggling weaponry into Lebanon, where sectarian disputes in Tripoli and other places are very acute.

This is a great achievement for Assad and his ally Hezbollah, and the rebels are no longer capable of pressuring the government in Damascus through their influence on the very sensitive areas that are usually viewed as the Hezbollah heartland.