Syrian crisis may spill over into the whole Middle East

A political analyst tells Press TV that the attempt to reconcile and to create some compromises has been posited by President Assad from the beginning of the crisis in Syria.

In a key speech on January 6, Assad called for an end to terrorist operations inside Syria and urged “concerned states and parties” to stop funding, arming and harboring militants.

Press TV in its Middle East Today program has conducted an interview with Ahmad Moussali, professor at the American University of Beirut, to further discuss the issue. The program also offers the opinion of two additional guests: Alaa Ebrahim, freelance journalist and Kamal Nawash Republican Party activist. What follows is an approximate transcription of the interview.

Press TV Professor Moussali, don’t you believe that now we have entered a new phase in the Syrian crisis? Our guest, disagrees it is not a show of strength but that is how many people are viewing it.

Moussali: Well he did not say it is not a show of strength but he said it has been the method that the government or President Assad has followed which is true. I mean the attempt to [reconcile] and to create some compromises and to revamp the whole political system has been posited by President Assad from the beginning of the crisis in Syria.

At the same time I think the speech is very unyielding in a sense that the solution has to be coming from within and not under the threat of fire or the ability as the opposition is trying to put itself, that it is able to overtake Damascus and all of the areas of the government.

So at this point in time about two years of the crisis what we are seeing now really I think and what the point you mentioned, it is very important that the army has been able to recapture certain major areas that have been taken by the opposition.

Press TV Okay, is this why his speech was unyielding?

Moussali: I think this is a part but two, it is obvious today, even today or what has been going on from the release of the Iranian hostages or the kidnapped individuals and the talks between, seem that Russia and the US are going for a political settlement in terms of their regional powers and that I think is reflected in a way that the opposition should lower its expectation given that none of the opposition forces is or will be able to take over the government.

The discussion today from a world perspective that if the Syrian regime, current Assad regime collapses, what is the alternative? I mean in London there is discussion about the alternative but if one really looks at what is going on is that the current coalition does not control the ground and those who do not control the ground, I mean the opposition forces, are not really represented that heavily in the coalition meetings.

And therefore there is now a perspective in world politics that Syria is going to become, if the regime collapses, a terrorist state controlled by warlords and I do not think the international community want to see that happening in Syria and this is I think a card in the hand of the Syrian regime.

Press TV Professor Moussali, you mentioned in your previous answer that the opposition should lower its expectations, but our guest mentioned the foreign support. How can these opposition elements lower their expectations if countries like Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are in control and they do not seem to want to lower these expectations?

Moussali: You know, up until now I think there are two issues that we can bring together. One of them is definitely the foreign support and the foreign fighters, so not all of the opposition or at least the fighting forces in the opposition are Syrian. A lot of them are mercenaries under Islamic names, banners and so forth and a lot of Takfiri Jihadists that are fighting and this is I think what is worrying the world right now.

Number two, the Syrian government has not been able or [been] enable to really make up its case in world politics. The message that has been coming out, if you look at world media, is that the government doesn’t want a solution, the government is going for a military solution and so forth.

So there is a media problem in terms of selling the Syrian solution or at least the one that president has been trying to say. I mean of course there are outlets that have been used and support that but the totality of the media outlets have been against Assad and therefore there is a lot of misinformation about what is going on in Syria as your guest mentioned in Washington I guess, Mr. Kamal.

Of course the killings are happening by both but every day you hear for instance on the media the government forces have killed 150 people. I mean what about the opposition, did not kill anyone? So there is misinformation.
But now I think there is a lot of change as there is a lot of fear. One is that these forces now although they are being supported, if you noticed in the last couple of days the Vatican spoke about a military solution, Saudi Arabia and Egypt started to talk about a military solution which is very important. Why? Because now you can see the difference between Saudi Arabia and Qatar in terms of military support and so forth.

I think the situation is spilling [over] into Lebanon, is spilling [over] into Turkey, spilling [over] into Turkey more prominently and that I mean if the situation goes into Iraq and we start to see similar activities that would be very dangerous.

And yesterday the Saudi Foreign Minister said blatantly we are against the Arab Spring. I mean there is now re-thinking about what is happening in Syria and given the fact that there is no partner for the Syrian regime to make any real deal unless it is regional deal and international deal which is being made now but it is not yet met and this means however that the groups on the ground especially the foreign forces will have to evacuate which means going either into Lebanon or Iraq.

Press TV Professor Moussali, after what you mentioned the Saudi Arabians stance, the Qataris stance, if America and if other countries agree to a solution which includes Bashar al-Assad in the future, how much of an ability is there for Qatar and those who might oppose a solution to sabotage, to prevent?

Moussali: I mean they would have the ability to sabotage for a short while but in general that would quiet down the issue and will be able to move to a political situation.

But I think still that there are groups within the opposition that will not accept any solution, whatever it is. They are going for different kind of mini-states within Syria itself and I think that is one of the fears that Syria will be divided into different kinds of state which means that the whole area is going to blow up into confessional and sectarian states.

I think one of the major things to watch out for and I think that will cater into the countries around Syria to quiet down the confessional and sectarian tensions. We are going in this Arab East through very difficult times and if Syria collapses totally and you have different kinds of mini-states, this means the whole Arab East is going to witness that.

Press TV Quickly, is that an imminent danger, a real danger?

Moussali: It is a danger, it is not so imminent right now but it is being prepared, if Syrian president is going to fall down, he is not going to fall down, is going to create a mini-state and this mini-state is going to be…

Press TV Professor Moussali, can we say now that the possibility of foreign military intervention despite the fact that Patriot batteries now have been deployed on the borders or are going to be deployed in Turkey, that that scenario is canceled one hundred percent?

Moussali: Look I don’t want to say one hundred percent but it is very unlikely because any external intervention will redraw the map within Syria itself and I do not think the foreign or international powers want to do that.

But at least this is to put more pressure on Syria and more probably on Iran as well. I mean the Patriots have more than one role and we cannot just say maybe this is an excuse for employing the Patriots in Turkey rather than using it with Syria as much.