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War on Gaza Postponed… or Maybe a No-Return

From Al Intiqad by Hassan Ibrahim

On the materialistic military level, the “Israeli” entity hasn’t been more competent than he is now. Throughout his history, since it was installed in the region in 1948 until now, for the “Israeli” military capabilities are more efficient and effective and developed from before. However at the same time, the decisions makers in Tel Aviv did not witness any weakness or deterrent in moving any of their military options against their enemies; a situation resembling them at this stage.

Weeks ago, the Palestinian resistance bombarded, from the Gaza Strip, Bir Al Sabeh (Beersheba) city and its surroundings with a developed “Grad” rocket which fell central the city.
This was considered to be an unprecedented development since the Zionist aggression on the Gaza Strip in the end of year 2008. The bombarded rocket was considered also a development revealing that the “Israeli” deterrence towards the Palestinians has never been present, but it is only a Tel Aviv attempt to fool the settlers themselves, before it becomes a representation for the calm situation witnessed in the past years on the Palestinian front, into showing that the “Israeli” ascendancy is the dominating on the field.

Furthermore, a couple of days ago, five settlers were killed in Etmar settlement near the West Bank city of Nablus, which triggered fear among settlers.
The “Israeli” response to the aforementioned incidents was enough to show the actual “Israeli” capability to respond, and to have primary action at the say time, regarding the “Israeli” enemies at that stage.

It was apparent, in the framework of the “Israeli” response, that the enemy’s aircraft bombard evacuated facilities in the Gaza Strip, in addition to attempts to bombard ineffective sites, which the “Israeli” enemy said were annexed by Palestinian brigades in the Strip.
The “Israeli” attacks came in response to the bombards in (Bir Al Sabeh) Beersheba, and so did bombarding other sites specific for manufacturing means of combat, in a way that shows an excess of carefulness not to hurt any Palestinian civilians.

It was also significant that the response to the Etmar operation, despite the scenes of extremes, was a campaign of random arrests in Nablus, where many Palestinians not related to the incident were arrested. At the same time, Tel Aviv stressed it will respond to those who “committed the crime” through approving the resumption of settling, and building 400 settling units in the Gaza Strip and Easter Al Quds (Jerusalem). The “political response” was said to be illustrated as referred to by “Israeli” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that “they fire and we build”, without any decent “Israeli” military aggression.

Apparently, the “Israeli” hands are tied up and regressive. These are some factors that should be taken into consideration in clarifying lack response:

It is the first time that Tel Aviv faces operation in the stage after the ally-Arab regimes have collapsed, or the threat that others might collapse, especially in Egypt.

That holds evidence of the actual “Israeli” capability, and of the “Israeli” position regarding the recent development in the Arab world, concerning “Israel” and the collapse of its ally regimes.
It seems that the developments in the Arab world seize on to the “Israeli” decision maker, and stops him from activating any of the aggressive measures in Palestine, Lebanese, Syria, and also Iran; assuming there are actual aggressive measures against the latter.

As known for all, the Egyptians have left their silence, and the Egyptian audience has become a major factor, where its reaction regarding Tel Aviv-based decision maker should be taken into consideration. The decision maker should not irritate this audience or try to stop it, or there will be more negative repercussions on the Egyptian level over the Zionist entity, although negative repercussions are too many naturally.

Regarding the east and the Jordanian sphere, which is the most important and influential factor on Tel Aviv more than any other sphere. “Israel” is careful not to irritate the Jordanian people, who share a special relation with the Palestinians, and they are naturally quickly affected with what is happening in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

The “Israeli” concerns regarding the Jordanian regime, and avoiding its collapse through preventing any street revolt on the background of an “Israeli” aggression on the Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank, curb “Israel” from conducting any aggression; whether primary aggressive attack, or a responding aggression, like what happened after the Beersheba and Etmar operations.

At the same time, a factor observed by the “Israeli” enemy last year should be taken into consideration, which is joining the fronts together, and not separating them in any upcoming confrontation that could be aimed at by Tel Aviv.

According to what former “Israeli” Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkinazi said during the latest Herzliya Conference, few days before his term ended, “”Israel” should be prepared for an overall war in light of the changes witnessed in the Middle East, and should be prepared for war on more than one theater”. He also added, “Because of this spectrum, we must prepare for a conventional war…it would be a mistake to prepare for non-conventional war or limited conflicts and then expect that overnight the forces will operate in an all-out-war”. (Ynet news)

As for the “Israeli” Military Intelligence Chief, Amos Yadlin, who recently left his position, he said in a meeting for the “Israeli” government, “The current calmness on the military level shouldn’t mislead us because our enemies strengthening and arming”. Yadlin considered that if a new military dispute breaks, it will include more than one front, expecting that Tel Aviv city will also be a front.

On another hand, the said factors are enough to stop “Israel” from activating any aggression option towards the resistance spheres; it’s clear that any new “Israeli” aggressions on the general resistance fronts, will not be confronted by the resistance fighters as a response similar to those witnessed by “Israel” for its aggressions, whether in Lebanon, or even in the Gaza Strip.
Tel Aviv is well aware that the capabilities of the resistance fighters have increased in number, accuracy and efficiency to destroy. They also have the major factor in any response, which is the will in using what the resistance fighters possess of combat means and military capabilities.

As a conclusion to the aforementioned factors; “Israel” will not attempt to launch attacks on the Lebanese or the Gazan spheres. It could be a risky conclusion, but at the same time, people should be aware that the Tel Aviv army isn’t as it used to be, for before, all it needed to do is point a finger at what it seeks, and it would occur without any efforts.
The factor of deterrence engraved in the Arab awareness has gone, and moved to be engraved in the Zionists themselves.

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