2014: The year to ‘go small’

If this was a dud year in Washington, get ready for 2014 — the year to “go small.”

Lawmakers had already lost their appetite to “go big” this year, letting reforms of immigration, guns and the Tax Code slip away in the face of gridlock and dysfunction.

And now there’s a new problem. Lawmakers are reluctant to rely on the federal government to get anything done — a guilt-by-association consequence of Obamacare’s botched rollout. Republicans have called it an indictment of more than a website, but of Big Government itself.

While Democrats argue the problem is obstructionism — not ideology — the result will be the same: As Washington laments the end of a do-nothing year, lawmakers are fully prepared to do as little — or even less — in the new year.

“I think anything that has a significant expansion or role for the federal government is going to be problematic,” South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a top Republican message strategist, told POLITICO. “Because I just think there’s going to be such a cynicism and skepticism attached to any promises made with regard to the federal government’s role.”

There are top tier bills for 2014 that even a divided Congress should pass. A new farm bill, another debt limit extension and appropriations to keep the government from shutting down again are already lined up for action early in the year. But none is expected to be a blockbuster.

“Some things are big enough that they have to happen,” said Sen. Jim Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican at the center of several policy bills considered “must pass” that deal with the Pentagon, water infrastructure and highways.

But beyond those few imperatives, expectations are beyond low that President Barack Obama’s second term agenda will have much to do with legislating on anything comprehensive and much more to do with his own executive powers.

Obama has long faced a high bar for legislation that involves growing government — but the health law has turned it into a skyscraper.

Democrats counter that they’re more than ready to take on the big issues of the day, if only Republicans would stop obsessing over Obamacare and its troubled launch. Party faithful argue that any talk of a dying legislative agenda associated with the health care law needs the critical context that the GOP long ago started fighting the president’s bid for more significant victories.

“I think the problem is we ended up in something that was decided by the Republican party that this was their political ticket, this was their golden ticket to political success,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.).

“Long before we saw any trouble with that, the Republicans blocked guns,” added Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.). “Long before we saw any of that, the Republicans failed to take up an immigration bill even though we passed one. Long before we saw anything on that, we passed two farm bills, waiting for the Republicans to come up with one. I think it goes back a little bit further.”

For policy advocates off the Hill, Obamacare’s role in dampening prospects for other policy issues is beyond frustrating. They’ve been told for several years to get in line behind a seemingly endless series of budget battles. Now it’s sounding like Obamacare will cool the legislative agenda for one — and perhaps two — more campaign cycles.

“Obama’s credibility is shot,” said GOP strategist John Feehery. “Frankly, Republicans simply don’t trust this president to keep his word on anything. That makes it harder to legislate big things. Most Republicans would rather wait to see who the next president will be.”

Public health funding expert Emily Holubowich said the policy issues she’s been pushing for have been thwarted by a “been there, done that” attitude among lawmakers from both parties. Obamacare politics have stymied action since 2011 on a stand-alone spending bill to fund the departments of Labor and Health and Human Services. Many public health service agencies, including the National Institutes of Health, have seen their authorizations expire, with no serious talk of action. And she fretted that Democrats and Republicans won’t partner on new health bills because it inevitably “becomes a debate about the merits of the ACA.”

“Because of the Affordable Care Act, I think public health programs have at best been overlooked and at worse, tainted by association even though much of what is done in public health — medical research, infectious disease control and surveillance, health professions training — has little to do with the ACA,” she said.

Obamacare’s problems likely won’t help motivate lawmakers who have fallen far behind in dealing with expiring laws and programs, including key parts of the PATRIOT Act, as well as the No Child Left Behind Act and the Individuals with Disabilities Education Improvement Act. More than 500 programs currently are beyond their authorization deadline, according to a January report from the Congressional Budget Office.

Thad Hall, a University of Utah political science professor and reauthorization expert, said Obamacare and the rise of the tea party have left Congress with few legislators willing to dig in on the gritty details.

“That’s a problem if we have a bunch of people throwing up billboards, you can’t get anything done big or small. And getting the small stuff right is key,” he said.

On tax reform, Republicans are still pressing for revenue neutral changes, but their continuing crusade against Obamacare only exacerbates disagreements with Democrats over the proper size of government. “I think it’s going to be hard in the next year, in a political environment, to do that, particularly given the differences of opinion,” Thune said.

Climate change is also taking a hit from Obamacare, one that is doubly painful considering it was the health care law that took up much of the legislative oxygen during the president’s first term and contributed to the demise of a comprehensive cap-and-trade bill.

More than three years later, climate advocates are reluctant to even consider another cap-and-trade push given the baggage associated with that policy. Some are comfortable floating a carbon tax — long seen as a political poison pill — because it can raise billions for the cash-strapped government. But with Obamacare in turmoil, they also recognize that anything seen as increasing the role of the government has no chance in this political environment.

“It put a knife into something that was already dead and buried,” said David Goldston, government affairs director at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Goldston said that the health care law has also put the Obama administration into a more critical posture as it turns to Environmental Protection Agency regulations for greenhouse gases, noting the recent arrival of John Podesta as a West Wing counselor who will spearhead the president’s climate agenda. “It’s just strengthened their resolve to make sure they put together this thing in the most resilient way,” he said.

An electric utility industry source warned that the administration may be on edge when taking on a climate regulation that Republicans are sure to target. “There’s not going to be a lot of taste for high cost things that might be watered down,” the source said.

If there’s one thing both parties can agree on, it’s that expectations should remain low on Capitol Hill.

Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) said the health care law “certainly doesn’t help in getting big things done.”

“But my view is the patterns of not leading have been so bad from both the White House and in the Senate that the likelihood of any big things is pretty small. If we can just do the return to doing the appropriations bills in regular order, I’d now consider that a big thing,” he said.

Even with Obamacare, Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said Congress and the White House have a chance to reach agreement on parts of an immigration reform package. Obama cited the budget agreement when he suggested more breakthroughs were possible even as he deals with the health law’s fallout on agenda.

“It’s probably too early to declare an outbreak of bipartisanship,” Obama said at his end-of-the-year news conference. “But it’s also fair to say that we’re not condemned to endless gridlock. There are areas where we can work together.”

Former Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) said immigration is the only item that he thinks “has a real chance” in 2014 as Republicans try to patch up relations with Hispanic voters before the next election. “Even that issue has a steep, uphill climb in this climate and in this Congress,” he said.

The problem, he said, is largely political as Republicans “see blood in the water” on Obamacare. That also makes the chances of doing big things harder after Obama leaves office.

“Beyond this administration, I do think the experience of implementing health care will cause some to be reluctant to push the ‘transformational changes’ that might be needed in some areas,” Dorgan said. “This experience will probably make everybody more cautious about proposing the ‘big’ things they think might be hard to implement because there is a price to pay if you don’t get the implementation right.”