Expert Forecasts Potential US Civil War Amid Rising Internal Instability
An American academic has forecasted the possibility of a second civil war in the United States, cautioning that the nation may splinter within the next ten years as a result of profound internal divisions and the failure of governmental systems.
According to a report by the Daily Mail, which references insights from Benjamin Cohen, a political economist at the University of California-Santa Barbara, California may consider seceding from the United States, potentially sparking a civil conflict within the next decade.
Cohen highlighted the concerning extent of political polarization within the United States, asserting that the likelihood of civil conflict is “substantially greater than zero.”
He presented a theoretical, yet conceivable, scenario in which California asserts its independence in 2035, defying federal authority and triggering a military reaction from the White House.
In a satirical news bulletin, Cohen wrote that JD Vance had issued a threat regarding a possible military takeover of the state government in Sacramento. This move would reportedly be supported by National Guard troops from neighboring conservative states, suggesting that the possibility of armed conflict is on the rise.
The notion of states seceding is gaining momentum among disenchanted citizens who feel marginalized by the central government. Cohen highlighted the influence of identity politics, observing that “rationalism falls by the wayside” when loyalty to one’s community becomes paramount.
A recent YouGov poll has amplified these apprehensions, revealing that 40 percent of Americans foresee a potential civil war within the next ten years, a conflict they believe would primarily involve Democrats and Republicans, rather than simply states opposing the federal government.
Cohen expressed uncertainty regarding the potential divisions that could arise from a civil war, but noted that the likelihood of such a conflict occurring is notably above zero.
He characterized the prospect of secession as an “underappreciated phenomenon,” noting that a significant number of Americans are willing to defy US federal authority in favor of establishing new political boundaries reflective of their ideological beliefs.
Secession would entail renouncing the U.S. Constitution, federal laws, and institutions, effectively establishing a new, sovereign nation.
