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UK econ. moribund: official report

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Britain’s National Institute for Economic and Social Research has in an official report promised a “gradual gain” in the economy but warned that the current situation remains “moribund”.

“The UK economy has been moribund since the second half of 2010. Whether the UK had a ‘single-dip’ or ‘double-dip’ recession misses this much bigger picture,” the NIESR said in its Prospect for the UK Economy report.

“The general outlook remains one of a gradual gain in economic momentum,” it added.

However, the institute warned that Britain is far from “a balanced recovery”, as it stands now, because the trade and fixed capital figures remain highly inadequate.

“A balanced recovery will require a significant contribution from net trade and gross fixed capital formation. We see relatively little sign of this as yet, with the current account deficit larger than in the decade before the onset of the Great Recession, and business investment volumes, remaining below 2007 levels until after 2017,” NIESR said.

The report further warned against optimism based on the slow recovery as it “is not enough” to “significantly” reduce unemployment or improve the current “large” negative output figures.

It also undermined the coalition government’s claims of massive spending cuts leading to a drop in public sector borrowing saying only policies leading to an investment boost would benefit the economy in both the short and long term.

“Public sector net borrowing will be around £112.4 billion, 7 per cent of GDP, in 2013-14, little different from the previous two years. It is only in 2017-18 that public sector net debt, as a per cent of GDP, will start to decline,” NIESR said.

The coalition government billed its £50-billion austerity program, launched in 2010, as a push to decrease the national debt that stood at £1 trillion, equal to 70 percent of the GDP.

However, Moody’s credit rating agency said back in February that London has probably lost the battle as the British national debt is expected to rise to 96 percent of the GDP by 2016.

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