Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Bahrain

With the developments of the Turkish revolution and its implications there is no longer room for debating about limiting the Syrian earthquake within the circle of the Syrian border, for the entire region is being prepared to receive the frequencies of the tremors resulting from it.
– In the region there are some countries that were involved in the war on Syria; their weapons were that of sectarian strife and their tools were to support al-Qaeda and everything related to it, and thus they have to be prepared for a variety of frequencies, including the effects of the maximum uncontrolled partisan confessionalism and this is the case of Turkey.
It has entered the endless path after awakening the confessionals that were asleep in the secular regime by the Muslim Brotherhood movement to strike Syria’s interior strength and to detach the unity of its texture, so it was and is being affected by the results of its acts a lot.

– In the region there are some countries, due to the nature of their sectarian and political composition, that are capable of facing those frequencies. This comes either because of the climate unleashed by the popular movement in the region and adopted by the Western countries, who claim to be circulating democracy in regimes being ruled by many weaknesses in this regard what make them vulnerable to be affected by those frequencies, or because their ethnic and religious composition make them face the atmospheres that are based on waking-up confessionalism or due to being placed in politics within the game of alliances produced by the war on Syria and the results of victory and defeat on both sides of the war as well as the results of the major settlements that are being adjusted between the elder ones and the younger ones, even those who look like elders in their surroundings will have to face their results.

– Saudi Arabia combines all the qualities that make it be topping the list of the candidate countries for receiving these frequencies, especially that its interior crisis that is raging as fire under the ashes will not escalate as is the case with Turkey. Yet, despite the abundance of money, the problem of the Eastern region and the liberal elites is neither a financial nor a service related one with the regime therein, and polarizing the Syrian crisis with the Iranian position is what dominates the whole Gulf and would affect Qatar even though this brings joy to Saudi Arabia that seeks to retaliate against an arrogant and cocky rival that has exceeded the limits of the role and the status. Still, Saudi Arabia is not in a better condition.

– Saudi Arabia as the leader of the union of American countries in the Gulf has made itself a sponsor of two regimes that are exposed to significant changes namely Bahrain and Yemen, and it is impossible for it to avoid being affected by these changes, whether in terms of the balance of power with Iran and its new equivalents or in terms of coping with the time of major settlements of which Iran would be an angle contradictory to the United States and Saudi Arabia who would be the recipients of their results.

– Bahrain is characterized since its inception as being a political entity despite the influence of the Britons on the components of its political regime, with a high degree of political tension and cultural advancement and with a vast room, to form the political parties, newspapers, and opinion makers. It has faced in the sixties revolutions, uprisings, and elections that were not transitory ones and/or made by the foreign intervention. Despite the fact that the active opposition was mainly in the Shiite community and in spite of the emergence of the Islamic movement which was playing a pivotal role in the opposition, but the high political maturity enjoyed by this opposition made the world be impressed by its revolution and made it develop as a case that must be covered by the arrangements of the new region. Thus, Bahrain became the first square of settlements subsequent to Syria, where it produced a coalition government through the ballot boxes in the framework of a restricted constitutional monarchy.

– The new Bahrain will be a place of a Saudi influence; any coalition government that will govern Bahrain after the elections with a degree of freedom will bring the opposition as a parliamentary majority and Saudi Arabia will have to accept this new situation. The year 2014 is approaching and Washington will be completely busy in the files of Afghanistan, and Russia will be the sponsor and it will be playing an already agreed upon role in arranging the sea as well as the oil and gas strategies and fleets. Iran will be the lord of the waters of the Gulf, and Saudi Arabia has to be prepared to reach an understanding with Iran with satisfaction and modesty and has to accept the fact that the time before is different than this time.

– Yemen due to its civilized background, population, limited resources, and its strategic location has always been under the scope as a source of constant concern in the Gulf and in the eyes of those interested in the Gulf affairs and oil. In Yemen, there is a political movement in the south and revolutions in the north since the fifties and the experience of Gamal Abdel Nasser identifies strongly the importance of Yemen in the map of the region. Despite the continuous attempts to distort the al-Houthi movement, but it has proved that it is present, it has strength and rational, and it is managing the files of the conflict in a good manner, and this enables it to play a pivotal role in the time of settlements, and makes the current formulation of Yemen politically unviable after its failure to accommodate the two political powers in the opposition i.e. the South movement and the al-Houthi movement. Hence, the risk of excluding them would be turned into a security cope and this will not be tolerated by Yemen where al-Qaeda is having a nest.

– Saudi Arabia is forced to accept a Yemeni settlement that could bring a government enjoying full powers with a presidency, the Lebanese way, and the components of the new government could act as guarantees of full partnership i.e. the al-Houthi and South movements to spread civil peace and to produce a Yemeni stability capable of giving stability to the Gulf. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has to take the initiative to open a dialogue with the current al-Houthi movement to settle the tension files and to maintain the role of the patron of settlements in Yemen.

– Saudi Arabia is forced to take off the hat of each of Bandar and Saud and to promote the place of Crown II Prince Muqrin, the most capable one of dealing with the settlements, to look towards Yemen and Bahrain, to look with an understanding eye at Iran, to leave the Syrian game quietly, and to take a position on a side that allows it to re-attach what has been interrupted with Syria. It should consider Lebanon a suitable square for this by encouraging the President in charge of forming the government “Tammam Salam” to accelerate the formation of the government of national unity and to reduce the voices of those who are said to belonging to it as the advocates of bombing in Tripoli and in other areas of Lebanon so that to make Qatar bears alone the costs of the bill of escalation. Thus, Saudi Arabia has to maintain its next role.

– The time of major settlements imposes on Saudi Arabia to lookout, be modest, to follow a “diet” to lose weight that begins through getting rid of the fatty appendages represented by the binary Bandar and Saud and to start to run the hot lines which became cool with Damascus and Tehran, because Bahrain and Yemen are two new neighbors of Saudi Arabia and it must get used to them with an unusual and different style and pattern of relationship.